The conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have taught a lesson with a very high tuition for modern militaries: cheap, expendable drones deployed on a large scale can be just as strategically valuable as expensive precision weapons. A Japanese startup is now pushing this logic further, replacing complex airframes with something much humbler – cardboard.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense recently met with the Air Kamuy, a drone maker whose design is based on corrugated cardboard construction. The meeting signals Tokyo's broader ambition to play a leading role in low-cost drone production as mass-market models reshape the way modern warfare is thought about.
The ministry's interest focused on the AirKamuy 150, a fixed-wing multi-role drone that is conceptually comparable to the American-made Lucas and Iran's Shahed, two designs that have already proven their worth on the battlefield. The AirKamuy 150, however, could prove to be much easier to deploy than either.
Iran's Shahed design gained a bonus when Russia began deploying it in large numbers after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Its appeal lies in its low cost and volume: these drones can be launched very quickly.
The US later converted the design to Lucas, which was then deployed against Iranian targets.
The AirKamuy 150 pushes the cost-effectiveness argument even further. While each Lucas drone costs about $10.000 to build, the Air Kamuy’s cardboard design costs up to $3.000 per unit. It’s also slightly faster, reaching about 74 mph compared to the Lucas’s 63 mph. It’s also significantly lighter.
Construction is very easy. Assembly takes about five minutes by hand, requires no specialized facilities, and can theoretically be done by any company with access to standard cardboard. The airframe is flat-packed, simplifying transport to the field.
Air Kamuy has so far used its drones mainly for target practice, testing and potential civilian applications such as delivering packages and responding to emergencies, but the involvement of the Defense Ministry suggests a move towards military use.
While the AirKamuy 150 has not been tested in combat, the company touts “swarm attacks” as one of its potential uses. Since suicide drones by their nature do not require armor, disposable cardboard could prove ideal for their construction.
One major limitation remains: range. The Lucas, powered by a conventional gasoline engine, can fly up to 512 miles. The AirKamuy 150 runs on electricity and has about 80 minutes of flight time, a limitation that cuts off its operational range for anything beyond short-range missions.
Beyond that, the broader implications of the project are worth monitoring.
As drones become increasingly autonomous, the development of AI swarm software could allow them to overcome conventional air defenses. Experiments in recent months have shown how large numbers of drones can act together with minimal human involvement. If cheaper materials like cardboard lower the barrier to building larger swarms, the strategic arithmetic of air defense could change once again.
Although the press releases will range from very select to rare, I said I'd pass...because sometimes the editors hide.
