What is the Kelvin wave that makes California run?

Communities throughout California are preparing for the imminent arrival of the so-called “Kelvin wave”, a huge undersea mass of warm water that threatens to inundate vast swaths of North America’s vast coastline. The wave is approaching southern California and is expected to reach the San Francisco Bay area by early October as it slowly moves toward Alaska. Water levels along California’s coast could rise by about 30 inches, according to scientists, who warn that this could dramatically double the 20 to 30 inches of sea level rise already caused by climate change over the past century.

A Kelvin wave doesn't rise and burst like a typical ocean wave; instead, it causes water levels to rise from deep below the surface. It's essentially a massive displacement of warm water, fueled by El Niño conditions, that crosses the Pacific Ocean before hitting the coast of South America and rushing north.

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It also doesn’t move water the way a tsunami would, but it creates conditions that allow sea levels to remain higher for longer. On their own, Kelvin waves aren’t always dangerous, according to Mike Jacox, a research oceanographer with the National Marine Fisheries Service, although they can limit the growth of phytoplankton, which is the base of the marine food chain. “But when there are very high tides or storm surges, their effects can be amplified,” Jacox said.

If rising sea levels coincide with other climate phenomena, such as heavy rainfall and high tides, the phenomenon could "swallow" beaches, erode steep coastlines and coastal zones, and flood roads, homes, and businesses.

“This upcoming Kelvin wave is just the beginning,” said Dr Jonathan Warrick, a research geologist at the US Geological Survey (USGS). “What we need to watch for is what happens in January, February and March — that’s when the strongest storms, the biggest waves and the very high tides occur.”

If these phenomena coincide in time, their effects will add up, heralding a winter with severe weather events.

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